Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) is engaged in the design, marketing, and distribution of apparel, accessories, home furnishings and fragrances. These are offered under such brand names as Polo Ralph Lauren, Safari, Black Label, Club Monaco and Rugby. The company operates over 300 Ralph Lauren, Club Monaco, and Rugby retail stores, as well as a pair of e-commerce sites. Its products are also carried by upscale and mid-tier department stores. Macy's (NYSE: M) and Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) account for more than a third of all wholesale revenue. Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) and Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) are competitors.
The company pleased investors late last month, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.00 and revenues of $1.24 billion. Analysts had been looking for 65 cents and $1.15 billion. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $3.95-$4.05 ($3.97 consensus). Needham subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $79.
We saw another late day move save the markets today from looking like just one more mixed post-holiday trading session. The highly volatile durable goods orders came in at -0.5% for April, based partly on severe declines in aircrafts and autos. Any reprieve in oil was just that, some reprieve but no cure. We also saw the 10-Year Treasury cross back above that 4.00% threshold again. FOMC governor Mishkin also announced that he would retire in August, although this was non-moving for the market. Below are the unofficial closing bell levels:
Akeena Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: AKNS) saw a monster volume spike early on after boutique research firm Kaufman Bros. initiated coverage on the speculative solar stock with a Buy rating. More interesting than the research call itself was the overall level of volume right at the open that saw follow-on interest throughout the day as shares were up nearly 16% at $6.83 in the final minutes today.
American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) saw a 9% rise by the final minutes of the trading day to $18.79 after its earnings came in above some expectations.
JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) shares are trading higher after Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) announced that its fourth-quarter profit jumped 41% to $1 a share, well above analysts' estimates of 65 cents per share. RL's results were helped by the launch of the American Living line at JCP, which shows that shoppers are still buying at department stores. Also, other positive retail results from stocks like Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) are also lending a hand. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JCP.
After hitting a one-year high of $82.49 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.27 in January. JCP opened this morning at $41.16. So far today the stock has hit a low of $40.68 and a high of $42.18. As of 1:00, JCP is trading at $40.91, up $0.41 (1.0%). The chart for JCP looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just three months as long as JCP is above $30 at August expiration. JCP would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money.
JCP hasn't been below $33 at all in the past year and has shown support around $38 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in mid August) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $28, where it bottomed out in March and April.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JCP, RL, or DLTR.
Father's Day is around the corner. Why not spend some time looking at the coming earnings and how Dad's Day may have an impact. It is funny to see how many of the companies reporting earnings this week actually have links to Father's Day.
While this column has been obviously bearish of late, there are a few potential winners that may appear, just in time for the big day. Time to stock up on gifts for dear-ole-dad, or get farther away from stocks? You tell me... (by the way, comments and ideas are always appreciated)
Monday, May 26
Markets will be flat. I am certain that stocks on the U.S. Market will close at the exact price they closed last Friday. But what do I know!
While the earnings season is beginning to wind down for the current quarter, there are still plenty of results to come. Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report results in the final week of May 2008.
These companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) down 2.9% to 33 cents per share, on $15.66 billion in revenue
TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is expected to swing to a loss of a penny per share, compared to a penny profit a year ago, and report $55.62 million in revenue. And analysts expect Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) to narrow its loss 7.8% to 47 cents per share, on $801.11 million in revenue.
Nike (NYSE: NKE) unveiled its Olympics 2008 line Monday, its largest effort for the games ever. Nike actually created products in every sport at the games despite not being an official sponsor of the games like its rival Adidas. As for the U.S. team, it will be attired in Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) garb.
If Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was upgraded Monday, today it finds itself on the flip side with a downgrade from Morgan Keegan from Market Perform to Underperform. Ummmm, contrarian is one thing, but I'm not so sure about that one. AAPL shares are down nearly 1.5% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, according to MarketWatch, Goldman Sachs has upgraded some brokers and asset managers, but is remaining cautious on regional banks, mortgage and specialty finance and REITs. American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and several others all were upgraded to Buy. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and several others were cut to neutral.
Determined to bring a more formal, stylish fashion to the U.S. Olympic team garb for the Beijing games later this year, the Olympic committee has dumped Roots Ltd. in favor of Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL). According to The Wall Street Journal [subscription], Tom Brokaw, former NBC news anchor, was asked by USOC COO Norman Bellingham to approach Ralph Lauren about the possible affiliation.
The deal, which also includes the Paralympics, builds on the company's growing affiliation with sports events, including the U.S. Open and Winbledon, and should result in a terrific boost to sales at both its own boutiques and other retailers with whom it is negotiating distribution.
The designs will supposedly evoke the styles of the film Chariots of Fire. The duds will be kept under wraps until the opening ceremonies in August, although the many Chinese who will probably sew the garments will have a good idea of what to expect. I'll be interested to see if the Chinese government's clampdown on counterfeit goods successfully keeps fake U.S. uniforms off of the streets of Beijing before the games even began.
The line of consumer clothing to be spun off the Olympic garb should dovetail nicely into Lauren's line and burnish its image, although it will be interesting to see at what price point this line will fall. The equalitarian nature of the Olympic sport may not be reflected in the cost of dressing like our champions.
This post is one of several on business heirs apparent. Let us know in the comments whether you think David Lauren should take up the reigns of Polo Ralph Lauren, and be sure to check out the other heir apparent posts.
David Lauren is unusual among his two siblings and father, Ralph: he is not an entrepreneur. Ralph Lauren is, after all, the very definition of a self-made man, having brought himself up from his humble beginnings as Ralph Lipshitz (it was his brother who suggested the name change) and forged a company worth several billion dollars today. But as the only Lauren sibling to work for Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) -- as the SVP of Advertising, Marketing, and Corporate Communications -- he has been called the "heir apparent" to his father by more than one fashionable pundit.
As a junior investment banker, I analyzed Ralph Lauren's balance sheet more than once, seeking to show how well it might fit with another fashion house. The numbers were convincing, and it's probable that many a quiet chat was held between high-powered apparel executives based on these balance sheet combinations. The fact that nothing has ever materialized from this Wall Street cajolery is testament to the thing we all talked about but never appeared on our PowerPoint pitch slides: Ralph Lauren likes control. (I remember a story about a major photo shoot held up for hours because Ralph didn't approve of the shade of beige used in some thread, or something similarly outrageous.)
Many a sensible succession has been held up because the aging founder was unwilling to give up the corner office, in corporations and in kingdoms alike. For all his patrician good looks and endless charms, Ralph is rather unyielding in his patriarchy and certainly has not made David's path to the CEO spot a hop, skip and a jump.
So I'm looking at Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and its latest earnings report. I don't currently have a retailer in my portfolio, so I'm thinking to myself, hey, maybe I'll want to buy Liz after I check out its latest numbers. Well, that didn't happen.
Net sales (excluding discontinued operations) dropped 3% for the fourth quarter, and adjusted net income declined dramatically, coming in at $0.20 per diluted share -- last year at this time, the metric was over four times as big at $0.94. For the year, net sales dropped over 1% (excluding discontinued operations), and adjusted net income was $1.30 per diluted share -- yet another huge drop, considering that Liz Claiborne took in $2.99 per diluted share of adjusted net income in 2006. Oh, and there are other things here that will make any prospective investor shudder -- operational cash flow was down, the dividend was stagnant, and the margins weren't anything to write home about. And comps at some of the company's stores have been challenged (Juicy Couture, however, did report a strong 25% increase in comparable sales in the fourth quarter).
This was an easy one for me -- I'll stay away from Liz Claiborne. The company, which competes with the likes of Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) and Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), currently exists in the land of strategic reviews, cost reductions, and discontinued operations. I don't want to travel to such a land with this particular business.
Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns none of the companies mentioned.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, Virgin Mobile and Polo Ralph Lauren were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded shares of Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Neutral from Overweight following its Q2 results, as they believe the company's international exposure is not enough to offset slowing in North America and Europe. Shares were also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, citing the meaningful slowdown in fundamentals.
Lehman downgraded Virgin Mobile USA Inc (NYSE: VM) to Equal Weight from Overweight based on reduced visibility following its Q4 report.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) was lowered to Hold from Buy at Citigroup, as they believe the company is facing fundamental challenges in key markets and a lack of visibility on the Japanese market. They see more upsideelsewhere.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Bear Stearns downgraded BT Group Plc (NYSE: BT) to Peer Perform from Outperform.
Think Equity lowered Napster Inc (NASDAQ: NAPS) to Accumulate from Buy.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) shares are rising today afterthe apparel maker posted a fourth-quarter profit of $112.7 million, or $1.08 per share, helped by higher wholesale sales and a lower tax rate. Analysts had been expecting a profit of 77 cents per share. Wholesale sales rose 17% to $627 million. RL also raised its 2008 guidance this morning, a move that investors generally love. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RL.
After hitting a one-year high of $102.58 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $50.55 last month. RL opened this morning at $60.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $60.11 and a high of $62.89. As of 10:45, RL is trading at $62.72, up $5.26 (9.2%). The chart for RL looks neutral and improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
Today's Wall Street Journal has an article about the cost-cutting measures going on retailer, JC Penney (NYSE: JCP). The article, essentially an interview with CEO and Chairman, Myron "Mike" Ullman III, details Ullman's changing of gears, from aggressive store expansion and online growth to scaling back in the face of a looming recession.
The CEO is expected to announce today plans to merge the buying and marketing operations for store and online sales, cutting as many as 200 jobs.
In the article, Ullman says he may scale back store expansion over the next two years.
Getting more of the consumer's wallet
Ullman says, "Half of the families in the U.S. shopped with us at least once last year. But we only get 7% of their spending. So, our biggest opportunity in the downturn is to make every visit they make to our store, Internet or catalog more productive by offering more innovation."
Caris & Company initiated coverage on Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) with an Average rating and a $96 target price. It also initiated coverage on Nokia (NYSE: NOK) with an Above Average rating.
Stanford Research initiated coverage on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) with a Buy and on Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) with a Hold.
Bear Stearns upgraded Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) from Peer Perform to Outperform and downgraded Saks (NYSE: SKS) from Peer Perform to Underperform.
Jefferies & Co downgraded Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) from Buy to Underperform, lowering that target price from $50 to $30.
Banc of America downgraded Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) from Buy to Neutral. It also downgraded Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) for Outperform to Sector Perform.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) agreed to buy Audible Inc. (NASDQ: ADBL), the provider of digital spoken word audio content, for $11.50 a share, a 23% premium to its Wednesday's closing price.
engaged in the design, marketing, and distribution of apparel, accessories, home furnishings and fragrances. These are offered under such brand names as Polo Ralph Lauren, Safari, Black Label, Club Monaco and Rugby. The company operates over 300 Ralph Lauren, Club Monaco, and Rugby retail stores, as well as a pair of e-commerce sites. Its products are also carried by upscale and mid-tier department stores. Macy's (NYSE: M) and Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) account for more than a third of all wholesale revenue. Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) and Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) are competitors.
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Determined to bring a more formal, stylish fashion to the U.S. Olympic team garb for the Beijing games later this year, the Olympic committee has dumped Roots Ltd. in favor of 
David Lauren is unusual among his two siblings and father, Ralph: he is not an entrepreneur. Ralph Lauren is, after all, the very definition of a self-made man, having brought himself up from his humble beginnings as Ralph Lipshitz (it was his brother who suggested the name change) and forged a company worth several billion dollars today. But as the only Lauren sibling to work for .gif){kind=logo}
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